U.S. Intelligence Sees Russian Plan for Potential Ukraine Invasion

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration’s rising alarm a couple of potential Russian invasion of Ukraine is predicated partially on U.S. intelligence that Moscow has drawn up plans for a navy offensive involving an estimated 175,000 troops as quickly as early subsequent 12 months.

An unclassified U.S. intelligence doc particulars among the intelligence findings, together with the positioning of what officers say might ultimately be 100 battalion tactical teams, in addition to heavy armor, artillery and different tools.

The intelligence was first reported on Friday by The Washington Post.

U.S. officers stress that the intentions of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia stay unclear, and the intelligence doesn’t present that he has determined to hold out the obvious battle plan.

However the intelligence depicts a Russian navy machine springing into motion and positioning itself for an assault in opposition to which consultants say Ukraine’s navy would stand little likelihood. About half of the Russian forces that might be utilized in an invasion are already close to Ukraine’s border, and Moscow is shifting swiftly to construct up a big pressure of contract navy reservists, in accordance with a Biden administration official who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate intelligence.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would set off a significant nationwide safety disaster for Europe and the Biden administration, which has declared an “ironclad dedication” to Ukraine’s borders and independence.

Jen Psaki, the White Home press secretary, confirmed on Saturday that President Biden and Mr. Putin would maintain a safe video name on Tuesday.

Mr. Biden, she mentioned, “will underscore U.S. issues with Russian navy actions on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the US’ assist for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

The intelligence doc options satellite tv for pc pictures indicating a buildup of Russian troops and tools close to Ukraine’s jap border, and says that Russian plans contain shifting forces to and from Ukraine’s border “to obfuscate intentions and create uncertainty.”

The priority about Mr. Putin’s intentions has been fueled by what U.S. officers name a rise in Russian media disinformation describing NATO and Ukraine as threats to Russia, doubtlessly to create a pretext for a Russian escalation. The administration official mentioned that Russian officers had additionally proposed info operations inside Ukraine portraying that nation’s leaders as Western puppets performing in opposition to their nation’s pursuits.

“We’ve been conscious of Russia’s actions for a very long time, and my expectation is we’re going to have an extended dialogue,” Mr. Biden advised reporters Friday night time when requested about the potential for Russia invading Ukraine.

A Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson mentioned on Friday night time that the US didn’t search battle with Russia and believed diplomacy was one of the best ways to avert a disaster and forestall US.-Russian relations from spiraling additional downward.

U.S. officers have hinted vaguely in latest days that they’ve particular causes for his or her heightened concern about an invasion of Russia’s neighbor, a former Soviet republic that Mr. Putin considers a rightful a part of Russia.

Chatting with reporters in Stockholm, Sweden on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken referred to “proof that Russia has made plans for important aggressive strikes in opposition to Ukraine.” Chatting with reporters on his official airplane later that day, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers, referred to “warnings from an intelligence standpoint,” saying “there’s sufficient on the market now to trigger a whole lot of concern.”

Mr. Blinken and different U.S. officers have been consulting with U.S. allies in Europe to plot retaliatory measures in opposition to attainable Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, the place Mr. Putin has lengthy backed a pro-Moscow separatist insurgency and in 2014 annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

Mr. Blinken mentioned this week that the US would reply to “Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine” with “high-impact financial measures that we’ve shunned taking prior to now,” however didn’t present extra particulars.

Mr. Blinken conveyed that warning throughout a Thursday assembly in Stockholm with Russia’s overseas minister, Sergey Lavrov. However it’s unclear whether or not Mr. Putin might be deterred by such threats.

Chatting with reporters after his assembly with Mr. Blinken, Mr. Lavrov appeared to scoff on the menace, noting that the US has repeatedly sanctioned Russia in new and other ways in recent times.

“There’s all the time a primary time,” Mr. Lavrov mentioned. “There have been different sanctions they shunned taking prior to now.”

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.